Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 137.578270 164.515655 197.270183 240.668295 297.645732 3.713528e+02 4.764110e+02
2025-03-23 111.087789 144.775513 190.969059 261.342516 370.526849 5.425099e+02 8.554023e+02
2025-03-30 91.394836 126.042397 177.572494 264.317700 417.216639 7.007348e+02 1.346897e+03
2025-04-06 79.876925 115.230703 171.400197 274.313588 477.659423 9.187266e+02 2.197501e+03
2025-04-13 69.172261 103.058846 159.550291 269.878505 508.423907 1.098717e+03 3.241133e+03
2025-04-20 64.986773 100.350363 162.587206 293.505655 609.308572 1.536576e+03 6.217264e+03
2025-04-27 61.034706 97.182878 163.873252 313.842872 714.874733 2.115768e+03 1.259244e+04
2025-05-04 57.180758 93.458305 163.172186 329.528526 819.075143 2.854339e+03 2.736350e+04
2025-05-11 53.324613 89.082242 160.208660 338.906771 912.255278 3.735934e+03 6.455843e+04
2025-05-18 49.496351 84.186937 155.196461 341.572043 986.781909 4.715829e+03 1.696986e+05
2025-05-25 45.594538 78.632110 147.779814 335.650022 1027.588991 5.623740e+03 4.848470e+05
2025-06-01 41.932219 73.124935 139.596217 325.383937 1046.213173 6.465267e+03 1.715640e+06
2025-06-08 38.356498 67.560202 130.811079 312.231478 1051.166874 7.326392e+03 1.242166e+07
2025-06-15 37.669816 67.888111 135.842443 343.031726 1293.567148 1.250547e+04 NaN
2025-06-22 35.637353 65.113876 132.926473 347.658090 1411.584907 1.736332e+04 NaN
2025-06-29 34.256835 63.583476 132.846583 362.144805 1610.011710 2.762788e+04 NaN
2025-07-06 32.129041 60.168804 127.394178 355.768038 1670.580684 3.589851e+04 NaN
2025-07-13 31.750563 60.636039 132.227045 390.005976 2083.830535 8.381398e+04 NaN
2025-07-20 31.142507 60.499568 135.420454 419.756221 2539.653715 2.248599e+05 NaN
2025-07-27 30.316665 59.753884 136.783287 442.873839 3006.623886 7.344342e+05 NaN
2025-08-03 29.272285 58.370350 136.071165 456.765487 3427.179594 3.156996e+06 NaN
2025-08-10 28.051822 56.436349 133.422891 460.722881 3750.518655 2.187295e+07 NaN
2025-08-17 26.628693 53.875850 128.514315 451.935569 3883.546058 2.730458e+08 NaN